Earth Day,
April 22, 1999
Have you ever thought about where our electricity comes from? And the gasoline that powers our cars? Well, the majority of it, as you may have guessed, comes from oil. So do all of our plastics, synthetic materials like nylon, polyester, lycra, and so on. Actually, lots of the things we use today are in some way made out of oil, or oil byproducts. There's just one small problem with that: The Earth's oil supply is not bottomless, and according to some estimates, we've used up about half of it already!
According to OPEC, in 1996, there were an estimated 1,047,200 million barrels (42 US gallons each) of proven crude oil reserves in the world. [1] Sounds like a lot, doesn't it?
But if you then think about the fact that in 1996, the world was going through 71.7 million barrels of crude oil per day (yes, per day!), and start adding it all up... (71.7 million times 365.25 days in a year, means we're going through 26,188.425 million barrels per year) then you start to realize something: 1,047,200 million barrels may sound like a lot, but we're going through it fast. And worldwide oil use is expected to increase to 100 million barrels per day by the year 2020.
Do the math... at current rates of consumption (26.188.425 million barrels used up per year), pointedly not raising consumption rates as they are estimated to increase (estimates rounded to nearest million barrels):
| Oil Remaining, Based on Steady Usage | |
|---|---|
| Year | Barrels of Oil, in Millions |
| 1996 | 1,047,200 |
| 2001 | 916,258 |
| 2006 | 785,316 |
| 2011 | 654,374 |
| 2016 | 523,432 |
523,600 million barrels is the halfway point of what's left of our crude oil; so counting from 1996, it will take about 20 years to go through half, at a steady rate of consumption. So in about 2036, we'll be down to the last few drops, if we keep going at the current rates.
| Oil Remaining, Based on 1.5% Growth | |
|---|---|
| Year | Barrels of Oil, in Millions |
| 1996: | 1,047,200 |
| 2001 | 912,270 |
| 2006 | 766,913 |
| 2011 | 610,321 |
| 2016 | 441,628 |
| 2021 | 259,897 |
| 2026 | 64,121 |
| 2027 | 23,186 |
| 2028 | -18362 |
If, however, our usage increases at a rate of 1.5% a year (OPEC estimates we'll be using around 100 million barrels a day by 2020), then the wells run dry even faster:
This is not good; if you're in your twenties like I am, there's a darn good possibility that you'll be around in 2028; if not you, then your children, or your grandchildren. I'm not trying to be an alarmist here... even if the second scenario is more accurate, we have about three decades before the oil runs out. In addition, the United States with its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, has oil stashed away, but even that won't last long. We must start weaning ourselves off of oil!
I finished reading Thom Hartmann's Last Hours of Ancient Sunlight last night, and I find that my eyes have really been opened. Until I read it, I'd never given a thought about where our oil came from, or how much there might be left in the world. That's just one of several major points he makes about our society today, and where it's heading.
Although I was a little bit disappointed by the lack of concrete things that you and I can go out and do to start making a change, I still heartily suggest that you find yourself a copy at your local library or bookstore, or if you'd like to pick it up online,you can order from barnesandnoble.com by clicking on the link here: Last Hours of Ancient Sunlight. Or if you'd like to skim a bit of the book, there are excerpts available on Mr. Hartmann's site, here: http://www.thomhartmann.com/chapter.htm
The Earth's oil reserves are only one small factor affecting our environment, and so I'm going to try to make it a point to do regular features on various environmental subjects. Watch for an announcement on the main page for a new section on the environment, hopefully toward the end of next week.
Until then, think about what's going on in your neighborhood, and what you can possibly do to make a difference.
References:
[1] http://www.opec.org/faqs.htm#b1